Un regard sur la relation entre le secteur immobilier et la croissance économique au Liban

Abstract

Speculative real estate bubbles affect investment, consumption, the price level, exchange rates and, therefore, trade and financial markets. There exists a wealth of research on the importance of the impact of real estate cycles on economic cycles, but also on the causal relationship between the real estate markets’ activity and economic fluctuations. The purpose of this article is to determine the direction of this causality in Lebanon. From a simple regression model over the period 1993-2015, it appears that changes in building permits are based on the GDP growth rate of the previous year. The limitations of the study highlight other factors which, if considered, would lead to more conclusive results.